BSP notes Fitch's ‘BBB’ rating affirmation, outlook revision

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) noted Fitch Ratings’ decision to affirm the Philippines’ “BBB” investment-grade credit rating and revise the outlook from “stable” to “negative.”

The outlook revision reflects changes in the balance of risks surrounding the rating, amid global energy shocks.

Despite rising risks, Fitch expects medium term growth to remain strong, with GDP growth projected at 4.6 percent in 2026 as public investment gradually recovers, even as higher energy costs weigh on household consumption.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said, “The economy remains in a good position because growth is strong and banks are in good shape. The BSP is closely monitoring the impact of higher oil prices and geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, on inflation and the overall Philippine economy.” 

He added that while recent oil price pressures are driven by global supply shocks, the BSP remains vigilant against spillover effects and the risk of de anchoring inflation expectations. It stands ready to act in a measured, timely, and data driven manner.

The rating agency also recognized the government’s proactive response to the energy crisis, including the declaration of a National Energy Emergency in March. It cited the Philippines’ strong track record of policy continuity and economic reforms, which could help mitigate risks to the medium term outlook.

Fitch assessed that the country’s foreign exchange reserves remain adequate to manage current external pressures. As of end March 2026, gross international reserves stood at US$106.6 billion, equivalent to 7.0 months’ worth of imports and about 3.9 times short term external debt based on residual maturity.
​
An investment grade rating signals low credit risk and continued access to affordable financing, supporting government spending on priority programs. A negative outlook underscores the need to address emerging risks affecting the country’s credit profile. Based on Fitch’s definition, revision in the outlook does not imply a rating change is inevitable.​